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Visualising grade (un)reliability

On 27th November 2018, Ofqual published some important measures of the reliability of GCSE and A level examinations in 14 subjects - “reliability” being defined by Ofqual as “the probability that the grade as awarded is the same as the grade that would be awarded had that script been marked by the senior examiner”. The grade corresponding to the mark given by the senior examiner is by definition ‘right’, and so any other grade is necessarily ‘wrong’. In principle, all exams should be 100% reliable, with every candidate awarded the ‘right’ grade. As the Ofqual document shows, however, the reliability of grades varies from 96% for maths to 52% for a combined exam in English language and litera

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